Climate Phase Forecast
Date Updated:March 18, 2007
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Current East Pacific SST Analysis |
Current East Pacific SST Anomaly Analysis |
A moderate to strong La Niña has likely reached its peak intensity and will continue through at least April of 2008.
Colder than normal surface temperatures spread over most of the tropical Pacific Ocean in the fall of 2007 consistent with a phenomenon known as La Niña. La Niña can be thought of as the opposite of the better known "El Niño", where the Pacific Ocean along the equator from the South American coast to the western Pacific turns several degrees C warmer than normal. The colder than normal temperatures continued to spread and intensify during the past fall and winter seasons and the La Niña event grew in magnitude until it was considered a moderate to strong event. The colder ocean temperatures seem to have peaked in February and are now slowly returning closer to normal. However, given the massive area covered by these colder waters and the extent of the cooling, it is nearly certain that La Niña conditions will persist at least through April of this year.
What will happen in the Pacific Ocean later in 2008 is much less certain. While most El Niño/La Niña prediction models show a slow decay of La Niña well into the summer, about half of these are predicting a return of La Niña in the fall of 2008. Multi-year La Niña’s have happened in the past, most recently in 1998-2000. Keep in mind that these long range predictions are quite uncertain, especially at this time of year when the dynamics of the Pacific are not well understood.
La Niña favors warm and dry March conditions in the Southeast, but mixed patterns in April and May. A resurgence of La Niña later in the fall would favor a more active hurricane season. For more information on climate impacts in the Southeast, see the latest climate outlook.
The SECC tracks the temperatures of the Pacific Ocean using the JMA index. For more information and current JMA values, see the following link:
Other El Niño/La Niña Forecasts
Below are links to El Niño/La Niña forecasts from other centers in the U.S. and worldwide. Caution: the SECC may not agree with their forecasts and/or classification criteria.